A military conflict in which an intervening power seeks to advance its strategic interests by supporting state or nonstate actors directly or indirectly. Unlike direct warfare, proxy wars allow major powers to avoid direct confrontations while competing for influence and resources. They also can widen local military conflicts into broader geopolitical ones. These wars leave lasting scars in the countries affected, including economic instability and societal divisions that undermine national unity.
Proxy war is a common tool for major powers to pursue their strategic interests without direct involvement in civil and other conflicts that threaten their own security. However, there are limits to this strategy. For example, as a recent conflict in Syria has shown, proxy wars can spawn antidemocratic regimes. Moreover, they can also lead to catastrophic civilian casualties and have a profound impact on the nation’s domestic politics.
To counter these risks, an intervening state needs to consider how much autonomy it should grant its proxy. This balance between control and allowing its surrogate to achieve tactical military victories is critical. It is also important to understand that an intervening state’s proxy will be motivated to apply its limited resources toward its own interests, a tendency that increases with the proxy’s autonomy. As a result, an intervening state should be willing to limit its objectives when necessary in order to maintain policy coherence with its proxy. Achieving this requires an intervening state to carefully assess the overall convergence and divergence of its objectives with its proxy’s, as well as address emerging conditions—both self-inflicted and beyond control—that can hinder policy coherence.
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