The primary goal of an insurgency group is to undermine or destabilize a government by attacking civilians and threatening military targets. Insurgents struggle to balance the need to gain legitimacy and support among populations with military objectives that may alienate them. This struggle is exacerbated by the fact that states typically have significantly more firepower and resources than insurgents.
For example, if an insurgent’s attacks against the nation’s economy and public institutions are particularly brutal, they risk alienating the population and losing support. Conversely, if an insurgent’s tactics are too cautious, they may miss opportunities to weaken the state.
This asymmetrical dynamic has led to a variety of adaptations within insurgency groups. For example, a group’s ideology can shift from a revolutionary narrative to a more militarized stance. In the latter case, the insurgent group can focus on military goals and less on building a political legitimacy.
Insurgents also can adapt by changing their geographic scope. This approach can be referred to as local insurgency, where an insurgent seeks to dominate a region instead of overthrowing the entire government. The Zapatistas in Mexico, for example, demonstrated this type of strategy by limiting their sphere of influence to Chiapas and neutralizing government power by enmeshing themselves with the local population.
Finally, insurgents can adapt by creating virtual leadership committees. Through deepfake technology, these groups can establish themselves as the face of their movement to attract recruits. These virtual tribes can also be skilled at cyberattacks, targeting the economic infrastructure of Nation A without officially affiliating with the insurgency.
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