Often characterized as conflicts between nation-states, geopolitical tensions reflect the competing interests of different countries, influenced by both geographical factors and economic power. They can take the form of diplomatic disagreements, trade sanctions and armed conflict, significantly shaping global politics.
Geopolitical tensions are deeply rooted in the unequal distribution of energy resources. Fossil fuels, historically the dominant energy source, are concentrated in specific geographic regions and have sparked competition for access to these resources. The quest for energy security has been a significant driver of foreign policy for many nations, driving interventions in resource-rich regions and support for regimes regardless of their human rights record.
Globalization has also heightened geopolitical risks. A shift from a world regulated by international institutions and trade agreements to one defined by accumulating geopolitical shocks will have significant consequences for the future of global society, impacting both economic growth and social cohesion.
A refined understanding of geopolitical tensions requires moving beyond linear cause and effect relationships to consider emergent properties of interacting systems (energy, ecological and the international political system) where actions in one have unintended consequences in others. We call this a systems approach to a complex challenge and recommend engaging multiple disciplines such as political science, economics, environmental studies and history.
For example, the recent conflict between the US and China over Taiwan illustrates how a conflict in one region can have far-reaching impacts. The US’s trade restrictions on China have resulted in retaliation by the Chinese, threatening global supply chains and disrupting industrial production.
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